A United Ireland Plebiscite Cannot Become 'A Sequel to Brexit', Experts Warn

Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."